Every prediction Latavis serves is logged to an immutable hash-chained ledger. Below is the scorecard, the verification methodology, and — openly — the claims we've retired.
Withdrawn after our own review found target leakage (a feature that echoed the label). The leak-free re-baseline reads ≈0.57 — no forecasting skill claimed. The real EDGAR BDC panel, LGD, and ASC-820 Level-3 marks remain served; the PD accuracy number does not.
Once the 45-day disclosure lag is respected, the tradeable signal is indistinguishable from noise (rank-IC −0.0085). The contemporaneous +0.0138 was look-ahead. Served capped at L1 as context only.
Withdrawn after our own re-validation gate found label leakage worth 5–7 AUC points, a look-ahead benchmark, and a single-recession (COVID-only) out-of-sample window. Leak-free walk-forward AUC: 0.81 (n=165, OOS 2011–2024; 0.79–0.81 across label gaps, measured 2026-09-01) — not statistically separable from climatology. The served probability remains live, Platt-calibrated, and now carries this gate status in its API payload.
About this page. Latavis publishes the scored accuracy of its own forecasts — including where they underperform the named naive benchmarks — because we believe forecast providers should be checkable. Every figure links to its methodology, validation basis, and verification level (L0–L3), and is recorded in an immutable hash-chained ledger at issue time.
What this is not.Latavis is an analytics and research platform. Nothing on this page or this platform is investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice; a recommendation, offer, or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security or other instrument; or a prediction that any market outcome will occur. Forecast-skill statistics describe historical model performance against stated benchmarks over stated windows; they are not simulated or actual trading returns, and past forecast accuracy does not guarantee future accuracy. Models can be wrong, can degrade without warning, and are retired when they fail our validation gates — see the retired-claims log above. All outputs are impersonal: they are identical for every subscriber and are not based on, or tailored to, any person's portfolio, objectives, or circumstances. Users are solely responsible for their own decisions. Latavis is not registered as an investment adviser, broker-dealer, commodity trading advisor, or credit rating agency.