VerticalStatus todayValidated heroLevel
Private CreditReal EDGAR BDC panel · LGD · ASC-820 marksReal BDC panel (PD accuracy claim retired 2026-07-18)Real · Unvalidated
Macro & ESGRecession probability hero · 0.862 AUC retired 2026-07-20 (gate failed)US recession probability · OOS AUC 0.81 (leak-free walk-forward, n=165, 2011–2024)Real · Unvalidated
ManufacturingMF7 INDPRO nowcast validated · MF1–6 illustrativeMF7 nowcast · +8.37% vs AR(1), coverage 0.899OOS Validated
CommoditiesHybrid: synthetic fair-value scaffold (L0, conf cap 0.30) + a REAL gauntlet-gated COT positioning block served on predict (CL 0.614 · 5 of 22 markets tested · PIT release-lag 2026-07-23). The COT signal badges L3 from the payload when the gate passes; everything else here is the labeled scaffoldCOT positioning · CL OOS AUC 0.614 — served gated (gauntlet_pass + exact label), not the vertical's fair-value pathIllustrative
Fixed IncomeSample bonds on a frozen 2026-03-28 curve. The deep pricing analytics (BDT-lattice OAS, KRD, CDS, MBS) are real code with no HTTP route; NSS repricing ~8bps 5Y is interpolation quality, not a forecast—Illustrative
EquitiesReal SEC/13F/FINRA reference and ownership analytics attached to a FICTIONAL five-company price and fair-value scaffold - the headline number is invented; return forecasting is honest-negative—Illustrative
FXReal BIS/ECB/CFTC adapters in-tree (PPP/REER, carry, Garman-Kohlhagen, G10, COT); the serving path falls back to synthetic, so the number a customer reads is sample - context-only either way—Illustrative
EnergyLabeled scaffold · honest-negative on forecasting—Illustrative
Private EquityLabeled scaffold—Illustrative
CryptoLabeled scaffold—Illustrative
LogisticsLabeled scaffold—Illustrative
InfrastructureLabeled scaffold—Illustrative
Insurance & ILSLabeled scaffold—Illustrative
"Labeled scaffold" means the vertical's workspace and gateway are live, but predictions are served from illustrative data capped at L0 confidence until real panels pass validation. When a claim fails validation, we retire it publicly — see the retired-claims log.